Claims, judged in the open.
Settled verdicts are public in full. Questions still under test are listed by title only, so anyone with data can weigh in. When a verdict flips, the reversal stays on the record.
How to read a verdict
✅ Holds — survives the tests we know how to run.
⚠️ Partly — true under stated conditions, misleading outside them.
❌ Doesn't hold — the evidence points the other way.
🔶 Untested — an open question; only the title is public.
— Reading trap — not a claim to judge; a way the numbers mislead.
How to read the type
Experience measured on my own accounts. It can still be overturned; survivorship bias is always possible.
Hypothesis the framework is formed and still being verified. Being overturned is normal.
Reader-contributed a reader's case, not verified by us.
Loading the ledger…
Ledger last updated: —. Verdicts change only when the evidence does; there is no fixed review schedule.
Have data on an open question?
If you have run something on your own account that bears on a 🔶 question, or that contradicts a verdict here, I want to see it. Cases are de-identified, published only with your consent and marked as not verified by us.
Share a caseWhy publish reversals?
A ledger that never changes is either very lucky or not being checked. Each entry keeps its full history, so you can see what we believed, when, and which premise broke when it changed.